Why Now — Cycle Position & Hardware Cost Window
Two independent windows, open at the same time
Asset cycle + hardware supply glut
Asset cycle + hardware supply glut
1 · Where Bitcoin sits in the four-year cycle
$64,194
August 2026
-49%
below the all-time high
of $126,198 (6 Oct 2025)
of $126,198 (6 Oct 2025)
~364 days
top-to-bottom duration
in both prior cycles
in both prior cycles
Sep-Dec '26
bottom window indicated
by cycle analysis
by cycle analysis
Observed pattern, not a forecast: Dec '17 to Dec '18 (364 days) and Nov '21 to Nov '22 (371 days)
contractions, each followed by roughly 35 months of expansion.
2 · Hardware market — a structural dislocation
127.5 T
network difficulty
-18.3% from Nov '25 peak
-18.3% from Nov '25 peak
911 EH/s
network hashrate
7-day avg, down from 1.13 ZH/s
7-day avg, down from 1.13 ZH/s
$31.73
hashprice, $/PH/s/day
10 August 2026
10 August 2026
32,000+ BTC
sold by public miners
in Q1 2026 alone
in Q1 2026 alone
Why fleets are hitting the market
Large public miners are re-purposing power to AI / HPC:
- Hut 8 — $26.6B contracted AI portfolio
- Core Scientific — ~1.1 GW leased to AI tenants
- TeraWulf — AI revenue overtook mining in Q1 '26
- HIVE Digital — $2.55B AI "super factory" build
What that does to entry economics
Difficulty sits 18% below its November 2025 peak — every EH/s that leaves the
network raises revenue per TH for the machines that stay.
- S21XP 270T manufacturer price: $17 per TH
- Dataprana allocation: $8.00 per TH 53% below manufacturer price
3 · The convergence
1. Both inputs are cheap at the same time.
The machine price and the BTC price are each at their weakest point of this cycle. Historically that overlap has
occurred only around cycle lows — expansion phases price hardware and coin up together.
2. A thinner network means a larger share.
Fleet exits pull difficulty down, so each TH earns more BTC. Hardware deployed now starts producing into a
contracting network rather than competing against a record one.
3. The asset runs five years; the price is set today.
Entry cost is fixed at purchase; the revenue curve runs across the whole cycle. Cost basis set near the low is
what carries the return through the expansion.
For informational purposes only. Not financial, investment, or tax advice. Cycle analysis is a description of past
market behaviour and does not predict future prices; past performance does not guarantee future results. Hardware
availability and pricing are subject to change and to confirmation at the time of order.
dataprana.io